World Agriculture

 

World Agriculture

World Agriculture Vol.4 No.1 (Summer 2013) 

 

1- Climate change, population and food security

 It is widely recognised that climate change will impact negatively on food security and poverty, particularly in some countries in the developing world. This paper, however, points out that population growth will likely have a bigger negative
impact on food security and poverty in some countries in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The impact of climate change and population growth on food security and poverty in Timor-Leste (East Timor), a newly-independent country in South-East Asia, is discussed as an example. Simulation modelling of the effects of warming temperatures in East Africa indicates that sorghum yields of small-holder farmers using little or no fertiliser will increase at least in the short term due to faster breakdown of organic matter and uptake of higher amounts of nitrogen from the soil. The warming temperatures reduce yields only when higher levels of fertiliser are applied. It is recognised that crop production is only one of the factors that affect food security and an example from South Sudan, the world’s youngest country, is used to show that social factors affect food supply in the market, not climate change or lack of available land or water. The paper argues that research on climate change should continue, but that research to improve crop productivity with the present climate should not be disadvantaged if poverty reduction and food security targets are to be met.